by An asteroid that could be up to 220 feet wide will now miss the earth – but the chances that the space rock that hits the moon have doubled.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly had the chance to meet our planet in 2032, but NASA has now reduced this chance to 0.004%.
However, the likelihood that the asteroid hit the moon have doubled from 1.7% to 3.8%, based on new measurements of the James Webb Space Telescope.
NASA said: “Experts from the NASA Center for Near Earth object studies in the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory on December 22, 2032 updated from 1.7% at the end of February to 3.8%, based on the WebB data and observations from based telescopes.
“There is still a probability of 96.2%that the asteroid misses the moon.”
What would happen if the asteroid would hit the moon?
The latest telescopic observations have reduced the probable size of the asteroid, but it is still the size of a ten -story building.
According to the latest data from the James Webb telescope, the asteroid is viewed with a diameter of 174 to 220 feet.
If the earth had hit it, the energy that was published with its effect would have been similar to a nuclear weapon – many to brand it as a “city killer”.
So what would happen if it hit the moon? Obviously there are no cities that are in the way, but what is likely is that it would only create a crater.
The moon surface is littered with signs of thousands of such crater.
According to NASA, the orbit of our satellite would not change it. However, the effects could raise other topics, said astronomers and scientific author David Whitehouse.
Whitehouse said to Yahoo News: “It would be scientifically fascinating, but it would be a disaster on many fronts.
“The problem is that a large part of the effects fall back on the moon very quickly, not much of it, and it would be distributed into the room and distributed into the orbit of the moon. And that would affect people who travel to the moon, and finally it would start to rain back and to put it down on earth.”
Why should scientists be interested?
“Many” scientists hope that the YR4 will hit the moon so that they can observe its effects, said the head of the planetary defense office of the European Space Agency.
Richard Moissl, head of the ESA’s planetary defense office, said: “The opportunity to maintain an observed moon effect is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view.”
The information from the effects could “be valuable for planetary defense purposes,” he said.
When will we know if it will hit the moon?
Astronomers aim at the James Webb World space telescope at YR24 in order to maintain better readings about its position and size.
The asteroid is currently driving away from the earth and it will be from the perspective after May, and it will not be possible to receive readings until it is on its return trip.
What would have happened if it had been on earth?
The asteroid has a diameter of more than 50 meters, which means that it would have triggered planetary defense missions if it had more than 1% chance that he hit the earth in 2032.
A nuclear weapon would use these options to push the space rock into another orbit.
The “nuclear option” would most likely be used with larger asteroids more than half a mile in diameter.
Another option would be to use a large laser to evaporate the surface of the asteroid and drive it on another trajectory, as suggested in a paper from the University of California, Santa Barbara.
By far the most likely option is an “impactor” – a spaceship that is flown in the asteroids to switch it off, said Whitehouse.
NASA and the ESA have examined how the trajectory of an asteroid can change with a spaceship.
In September 2022, the mission of the NASA mission (Double Asteroid transfer test) had an impact on the asteroid dimorphos. The collision has successfully changed Dimorphos’ orbit, and now the scientists hope to examine Space Rock-Nahlung to understand how to start similar missions.
The ESA’s HERA spaceship will enter Dimorphos (and its larger accompanying didymos) orbit in October 2026. By analyzing the results of Dart, Hera offers information that can be used to repeat the performance with other objects.
