by Disease forecasts are like weather forecasts: We cannot predict the finer details of a certain outbreak or a certain storm, but we can often determine when these threats appear and prepare accordingly.
The viruses that cause bird observation influenza are potential threats to global health. The latest animal eruptions from a subtype called H5N1 were particularly worrying for scientists. Although human infections of H5N1 were relatively rare, there were a little more than 900 cases known worldwide – almost 50% of these cases were fatal – a mortality rate about 20 – higher than that of the flu pandemic from 1918. If the worst of these rare infections were common in humans, the results could be devastating.
My colleagues and I recently published a book entitled “Emerging infections: three epidemiological transitions from the prehistory to the present day” in order to examine how human behavior shaped the development of infectious diseases, starting with their first major emer generation in the neolithic period and the continuation of 10,000 years, for 10,000 years to be on time, the development of Infectious diseases shaped to start for 10,000 years, and up to 10,000 years to sit down until the time.
From this deep time perspective it becomes clear that H5N1 shows a common pattern of the gradual invasion of animal to human populations. Like many aspiring viruses, H5N1 incremental evolutionary changes that could enable him to transfer between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps offer ways to slow this process and possibly avert a global catastrophe.
Spillover and viral chatter
If an cause of the disease is already adapted to an flu virus to infect a certain animal species, he can finally develop the ability to infect a new species like humans by a process called Spillover.
Spillover is a tricky company. In order to be successful, the pathogen must have the right sentence of molecular “keys”, which are compatible with the molecular “locks” of the host so that it can be carried out and out of the host cells in the host cells and their replication machinery. Since these locks often vary between the species, the pathogen may have to try out many different keys before it can infect a completely new tavern. For example, the keys that use a virus to infect chickens and ducks uses successfully infect cattle and humans. And because new keys can only take place through random mutation, the likelihood of maintaining the right ones are very slim.
In view of these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens often arrive in the Spillover process. A new variant of the pathogen could only be transferred from an animal to one person who is either more susceptible due to existing diseases or is infected due to extensive exposure to the pathogen.
Even then, the pathogen may not be able to break out of his human host and to send it to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. Last year there were many animal outbursts in a variety of wild and domestic animals, especially for birds and cattle. But there were also a small number of cases of people, most of whom have occurred in poultry and milk workers who worked closely with a large number of infected animals.
Epidemiologists call this situation viral chatter: If human infections only occur in small, sporadic outbursts that appear like the chatting signals coded radio communication – tiny outbreaks of unclear information that can lead to a very threatening message. In the case of viral chatter, the message would be a human pandemic.
Sporadic, individual cases of H5N1 among people indicate that the transmission of people to person can probably occur at some point. Nevertheless, nobody knows how long or how many steps it would take for this to happen.
Influenza viruses develop quickly. This is partly due to the fact that two or more flu locations can infect the same host at the same time so that they can re -shape their genetic material to produce completely new varieties.
These redesign events are more likely to occur when there are a variety of host species. It is therefore particularly worrying that H5N1 has known to have infected at least 450 different animal species. It cannot take long for the viral chatter of larger human epidemics.
Remodeling the trajectory
The good news is that people can take fundamental measures to slow down the development of H5N1 and possibly reduce the lethality of Vogel -Influenza if it should ever become frequent human infection. But governments and companies have to act.
At first, people can take better attention to food animals. The total weight of the global poultry is larger than all wild bird species. It is therefore not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreaks is closer with a large scale and international transmissions of living poultry than with the nesting and migration patterns of wild water birds. The reduction of these agricultural practices could help to contain the development and spread of H5N1.
People can also take care of themselves better. On an individual level, most people can vaccinate against the common, seasonal influenza viruses that circulate every year. At first glance, this practice does not seem to be associated with the creation of Ovian Influenza. In addition to preventing seasonal diseases, vaccination against frequent human varieties of the virus will reduce the likelihood that they mix with bird varieties and give them the characteristics they need to transmit people to people.
At the population level, companies can work together to improve nutrition and sanitary facilities in the poorest population groups in the world. History has shown that better nutrition increases the overall resistance to new infections and reduces better hygiene how much and how often people are exposed to new pathogens. And in today’s interconnected world, the disease problems of every society will finally spread to any society.
For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of infectious diseases. If you know this, people can redesign these airways for better.
This article will be released from the conversation, a non -profit, independent news organization that brings you facts and trustworthy analyzes to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Ron Barrett, Macalester College
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Ron Barrett does not work for a company or an organization that benefits from this article and have not published any relevant affiliations about their academic appointment.
